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《Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order》

简介 Intro

《Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail》—— Ray Dalio

“A provocative read…There are few tomes that coherently map such broad economic histories as well as Mr. Dalio’s. Perhaps more unusually, Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from that history that can be applied to understand today.” —Andrew Ross Sorkin, The New York Times

From legendary investor Ray Dalio, author of the #1 New York Times bestseller Principles, who has spent half a century studying global economies and markets, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order examines history’s most turbulent economic and political periods to reveal why the times ahead will likely be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes—and to offer practical advice on how to navigate them well.

A few years ago, Ray Dalio noticed a confluence of political and economic conditions he hadn’t encountered before. They included huge debts and zero or near-zero interest rates that led to massive printing of money in the world’s three major reserve currencies; big political and social conflicts within countries, especially the US, srce to the largest wealth, political, and values disparities in more than 100 years; and the rising of a world power (China) to challenge the existing world power (US) and the existing world order. The last time that this confluence occurred was between 1930 and 1945. This realization sent Dalio on a search for the repeating patterns and cause/effect relationships underlying all major changes in wealth and power over the last 500 years.

In this remarkable and timely addition to his Principles series, Dalio brings readers along for his study of the major empires—including the Dutch, the British, and the American—putting into perspective the “Big Cycle” that has driven the successes and failures of all the world’s major countries throughout history. He reveals the timeless and universal forces behind these shifts and uses them to look into the future, offering practical principles for positioning oneself for what’s ahead.

关键词：Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order;

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读者评论 Readers\’ Comments

上帝视角

love this book, cuz our fund share the same research method and philosophy with Dalio. 看书过程就很愉悦，有结论，有支撑，研究方法也非常solid，最关键的是通俗，通俗，通俗。篇幅很大，研究了国家的兴衰——债务危机的周期视角，历史总是高度重复的，洞察规律非常有趣。

The understanding of cause-effect relationships in cycles helps us to explore what might be coming at us and handle it in the best possible way. In this book,China was thought a successor to the US in the new world order just like the US as a successor to the UK before,there still are some differences.

非常棒，作者从历史视角阐释经济、政治规律。虽然是文章的合集，但是逻辑顺序很清晰，语言直白。没时间可以不读细节，看part 1还有 中国的部分还是非常有启发的。

致敬！达利欧算是现在最出名的宏观经济投资者，这本研究世界秩序转变的书更像是学术研究，分析过去的几次国际霸权的转移-荷兰到英国到美国，建立一个模型，再将美国和中国的现状套进去。大体上他认为美国已经走完了帝国历程的四分之三，各项指标基本吻合帝国生命周期六阶段中的第五期末，一般来说后面接着的就是内战/革命了。整本书一点儿不装B，和苏世民、张磊们的自传完全不是一个路数。技术分析也非常朴实，已经达到了见山还是山的第三境界。

大概是今年带来启发最多的一本书，见证了疫情以来熔断和无尽的印钞，“当时道是不寻常”在历史中原是再寻常不过的沙砾。Dalio说 \”everything works like a machine, with timeless and universal cause/effect relationships\”, 人也好像沙砾，朝菌不知晦朔，蟪蛄不知春秋。

人和国家在不同的环境下诱发出符合自身性格的反应。想要改变自己？不如产生诱发这种改变的环境。 分离主义倾向都是因为世界贫富差距扩大的大环境。二战前各国经济危机，国内动荡，接着国际动挡。英美和平交替是因为第一他们同源；第二一战二战因缘际会让英美有更大的敌人，并且英国依赖美国。荷兰西班牙，西班牙英国之间的交替都没有躲过军事冲突。西方是感性生活，苏联是检验了的生活。怎样才能没有感性生活之恶，怎样才能没有检验生活之脱离生活？

表示大概是今年读到最好的宏观书了 虽然没有做出什么预测 但timeless and universal principles 还是好的

作者 Author

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio is the founder and cochairman of Bridgewater Associates, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best performing hedge fund in the world. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He lives with his family in Connecticut.

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